Atchison, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

248
FXUS63 KEAX 031136
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and storms today through tonight, in several
  rounds. Heavy rain and flooding likely.

- The best chance for severe storms is this afternoon and
  evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards.
  Tornado threat remains low but not zero.

- Cooler conditions later in the week with additional chances
  for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Initial round of showers and storms is moving into eastern KS and
western MO as of 06Z-07Z. As this round moves through in the predawn
hours, a few storms may pulse up to near-severe levels with hail
being the most likely hazard. Otherwise, pockets of heavy rain will
occur with this round. Scattered to widespread showers and storms
will continue through the morning and into the afternoon hours as a
cold front moves southward through the area. This front will likely
be splitting the forecast from southwest to northeast by the
afternoon. Models show very robust instability building south of the
front this afternoon. This may be over done though given the cloud
cover but through a combination strong warm and moist advection at
the surface and cooling aloft, we may see a corridor of 2500-3500
J/kg of SBCAPE with 40 to 50kts of deep-layer shear. This will
support a risk for large hail and damaging winds. While the tornado
threat isn`t zero, it is limited, mainly with veering winds into the
surface front limiting low-level helicity. 0-3km shear and low-level
helicity do increase substantially around 00Z Wed as the low-level
jet strengthens. This may lead to period of greater tornado risk
during the evening in our far southeastern zones if any line
segment or bowing segment can tap into/ orient favorably to the
shear vector. The NAM shows the 0-3km shear magnitude of 40-50
kts during this time frame though, so there would be a wide
range of orientation to work with if that comes to fruition.

The multiple rounds of storms will also pose a heavy rain and
flooding threat. While some of the heavier corridors of rain have
shifted, we`re still looking at a widespread 1-3" rainfall for the
area. And given the high PW airmass and potential for training
storms, there will be areas that see higher rainfall totals.
Overall, the flood watch looks good spatially and temporally and
will keep it going with this forecast package.

Behind this front, cooler conditions will prevail, with temperatures
about 10-15 degrees cooler Wednesday and Thursday compared to Sunday
and Monday. Wednesday and Thursday look mostly dry but precipitation
chances increase Thursday afternoon and especially Thursday night as
the next system potentially affects the area. Otherwise,
precipitation chances are generally in the 20-30% range, indicative
of a fairly uncertain forecast given strong flow aloft and embedded
shortwaves moving through that flow and the variability in
timing such waves.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorms along with MVFR ceilings are expected
today ahead of a slow moving cold front through the area.
Highly efficent thunderstorms will reduce visibility in heavy
rain. Front is expected to sag south of the region Tuesday
evening, leading to improved visibilities and VFR conditions
returning Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ002>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BT